FC Andorra
Burgos
FC Andorra – Burgos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Andorra at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.24 goals for FC Andorra and 1.06 for Burgos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, FC Andorra took 7 points and Burgos 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for FC Andorra, 1 draw, 2 wins for Burgos. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Andorra | 2.10 | 44 % | -17.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Burgos | 3.50 | 27 % | +2.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Andorra
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- FC Andorra
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Burgos
- Burgos1-0FC Andorra
- FC Andorra2-1Burgos
- FC Andorra1-0Burgos
- Burgos0-0FC Andorra
- Burgos2-1FC Andorra
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Andorra – Burgos?
Our model gives 1 · FC Andorra a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Andorra win 39 %, draw 32 %, Burgos win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Andorra – Burgos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.