Santa Clara
Benfica
Santa Clara – Benfica
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 0-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.95 – 2.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Benfica away from home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.95 goals for Santa Clara and 2.06 for Benfica. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Santa Clara took 10 points and Benfica 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Santa Clara, 1 draw, 4 wins for Benfica. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santa Clara | 8.50 | 11 % | +26.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.52 | 21 % | -6.4 % |
| 2Benfica | 1.36 | 68 % | -12.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Santa Clara
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Benfica
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Santa Clara
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Benfica
- Santa Clara1-2Benfica
- Benfica1-1Santa Clara
- Santa Clara0-1Benfica
- Benfica4-1Santa Clara
- Benfica3-0Santa Clara
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santa Clara – Benfica?
Our model gives 2 · Benfica a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Santa Clara win 15 %, draw 21 %, Benfica win 64 %.
What is the most likely score for Santa Clara – Benfica?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.