Galatasaray
Fenerbahce
Galatasaray – Fenerbahce
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.84 – 1.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Galatasaray at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.84 goals for Galatasaray and 1.39 for Fenerbahce. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Galatasaray took 9 points and Fenerbahce 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Galatasaray, 2 draws, 1 win for Fenerbahce. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Galatasaray | 2.15 | 43 % | +3.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -11.2 % |
| 2Fenerbahce | 2.95 | 32 % | -16.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Galatasaray
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fenerbahce
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Galatasaray
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Fenerbahce
- Galatasaray3-0Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce1-1Galatasaray
- Galatasaray0-0Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce1-3Galatasaray
- Galatasaray0-1Fenerbahce
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Galatasaray – Fenerbahce?
Our model gives 1 · Galatasaray a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Galatasaray win 48 %, draw 24 %, Fenerbahce win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Galatasaray – Fenerbahce?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.