Predictions are closed for this match.
Girona
06:30 PM
Sep 12
Castellón
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 2.25 | 42 % | +4.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -3.3 % |
| 2Castellón | 3.05 | 31 % | -20.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Girona
Castellón
| Girona | Form and statistics | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| 1583 | Elo | 1594 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 15.8 | Shots / match | 15.9 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 6 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Girona a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Girona win 46 %, draw 28 %, Castellón win 26 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 46 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.25 for Girona, 3.50 for the draw, 3.05 for Castellón.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 06:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadi Montilivi.
The model leans towards Girona at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Girona and 1.06 for Castellón. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Girona took 8 points and Castellón 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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