Predictions are closed for this match.
Lazio
06:00 PM
Sep 12
AC Milan
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lazio | 3.80 | 25 % | +40.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -7.2 % |
| 2AC Milan | 2.05 | 46 % | -30.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Lazio
AC Milan
| Lazio | Form and statistics | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 1649 | Elo | 1713 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 12.4 | Shots / match | 12.3 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Lazio a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lazio win 37 %, draw 29 %, AC Milan win 34 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.80 for Lazio, 3.15 for the draw, 2.05 for AC Milan.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Serie A), at Olimpico.
The model leans towards Lazio at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.26 goals for Lazio and 1.15 for AC Milan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 25 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.80, the predicted outcome carries +40.0 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Lazio took 12 points and AC Milan 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Lazio, 1 draw, 1 win for AC Milan. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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