Lazio
2-2
AC Milan
Lazio – AC Milan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.26 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan. The model predicted a win for Lazio (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.26 goals for Lazio and 1.15 for AC Milan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 25 %. Over their last five matches, Lazio took 12 points and AC Milan 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Lazio, 1 draw, 1 win for AC Milan. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lazio | 3.80 | 25 % | +40.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -7.2 % |
| 2AC Milan | 2.05 | 46 % | -30.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lazio
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AC Milan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Lazio
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- AC Milan
- Lazio1-0AC Milan
- Lazio1-0AC Milan
- AC Milan1-0Lazio
- AC Milan1-2Lazio
- Lazio2-2AC Milan
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lazio – AC Milan?
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan. The model predicted a win for Lazio (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Lazio – AC Milan?
Our model gives 1 · Lazio a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lazio win 37 %, draw 29 %, AC Milan win 34 %.