América
Pachuca
América – Pachuca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.18 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards América at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.18 goals for América and 1.14 for Pachuca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 60 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, América took 11 points and Pachuca 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for América, 2 draws, 1 win for Pachuca. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América | 1.55 | 60 % | -7.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +0.1 % |
| 2Pachuca | 5.00 | 19 % | -10.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
América
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pachuca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- América
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Pachuca
- Pachuca0-0América
- América2-0Pachuca
- América2-0Pachuca
- Pachuca0-0América
- Pachuca1-0América
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América – Pachuca?
Our model gives 1 · América a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América win 59 %, draw 23 %, Pachuca win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for América – Pachuca?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.