Atlas
Puebla
Atlas – Puebla
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.75 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlas at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.75 goals for Atlas and 0.97 for Puebla. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlas took 8 points and Puebla 3 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Atlas, 1 draw, 0 wins for Puebla. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlas | 1.68 | 55 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | -1.6 % |
| 2Puebla | 4.60 | 20 % | -6.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlas
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Puebla
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Atlas
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Puebla
- Atlas1-0Puebla
- Puebla2-3Atlas
- Atlas3-2Puebla
- Puebla1-2Atlas
- Puebla2-2Atlas
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlas – Puebla?
Our model gives 1 · Atlas a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlas win 54 %, draw 26 %, Puebla win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlas – Puebla?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.