Predictions are closed for this match.
Strasbourg
05:15 PM
Sep 12
AS Monaco
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Strasbourg | 3.02 | 32 % | +12.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -1.8 % |
| 2AS Monaco | 2.25 | 42 % | -19.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Strasbourg
AS Monaco
| Strasbourg | Form and statistics | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 1673 | Elo | 1721 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 2.20 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 11.6 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Strasbourg a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Strasbourg win 37 %, draw 27 %, AS Monaco win 36 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 61 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.02 for Strasbourg, 3.65 for the draw, 2.25 for AS Monaco.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 05:15 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade de la Meinau.
The model leans towards Strasbourg at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.54 goals for Strasbourg and 1.50 for AS Monaco. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Strasbourg took 12 points and AS Monaco 15 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Strasbourg, 1 draw, 2 wins for AS Monaco. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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