Independiente
Boca Juniors
Independiente – Boca Juniors
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.11 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Boca Juniors away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.11 goals for Independiente and 1.20 for Boca Juniors. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Independiente took 6 points and Boca Juniors 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Independiente, 3 draws, 0 wins for Boca Juniors. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente | 3.70 | 25 % | +23.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -7.6 % |
| 2Boca Juniors | 2.10 | 45 % | -22.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Independiente
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Boca Juniors
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Independiente
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-1Independiente
- Boca Juniors0-1Independiente
- Boca Juniors0-0Independiente
- Boca Juniors2-2Independiente
- Independiente1-0Boca Juniors
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Independiente – Boca Juniors?
Our model gives 2 · Boca Juniors a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Independiente win 33 %, draw 30 %, Boca Juniors win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Independiente – Boca Juniors?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.