Pumas UNAM
Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Pumas UNAM at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.28 for Tigres UANL. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Pumas UNAM took 5 points and Tigres UANL 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Pumas UNAM, 2 draws, 2 wins for Tigres UANL. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pumas UNAM | 2.70 | 35 % | +8.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 28 % | -0.9 % |
| 2Tigres UANL | 2.55 | 37 % | -21.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Pumas UNAM
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tigres UANL
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Pumas UNAM
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL0-1Pumas UNAM
- Pumas UNAM1-1Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL2-1Pumas UNAM
- Pumas UNAM1-3Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL2-2Pumas UNAM
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL?
Our model gives 1 · Pumas UNAM a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pumas UNAM win 40 %, draw 29 %, Tigres UANL win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.