Barcelona
Real Madrid
Barcelona – Real Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 62 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.53 – 1.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.53 goals for Barcelona and 1.18 for Real Madrid. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Barcelona took 12 points and Real Madrid 12 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Barcelona, 0 draws, 1 win for Real Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 1.64 | 58 % | +2.0 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | +17.1 % |
| 2Real Madrid | 3.90 | 24 % | -35.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Barcelona
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Real Madrid
- Barcelona2-0Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-1Barcelona
- Barcelona4-3Real Madrid
- Barcelona3-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid0-4Barcelona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barcelona – Real Madrid?
Our model gives 1 · Barcelona a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Barcelona win 62 %, draw 21 %, Real Madrid win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Barcelona – Real Madrid?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.