Union St.-Gilloise
Cercle Brugge KSV
Union St.-Gilloise – Cercle Brugge KSV
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 82 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.94 – 0.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Union St.-Gilloise at home (82 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.94 goals for Union St.-Gilloise and 0.82 for Cercle Brugge KSV. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 71 %. Over their last five matches, Union St.-Gilloise took 11 points and Cercle Brugge KSV 1 point. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Union St.-Gilloise, 2 draws, 1 win for Cercle Brugge KSV. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union St.-Gilloise | 1.30 | 71 % | +7.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -33.1 % |
| 2Cercle Brugge KSV | 8.00 | 12 % | -56.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Union St.-Gilloise
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cercle Brugge KSV
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Union St.-Gilloise
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Cercle Brugge KSV
- Cercle Brugge KSV1-1Union St.-Gilloise
- Union St.-Gilloise2-0Cercle Brugge KSV
- Cercle Brugge KSV0-0Union St.-Gilloise
- Union St.-Gilloise1-3Cercle Brugge KSV
- Cercle Brugge KSV1-2Union St.-Gilloise
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise – Cercle Brugge KSV?
Our model gives 1 · Union St.-Gilloise a 82 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Union St.-Gilloise win 82 %, draw 12 %, Cercle Brugge KSV win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for Union St.-Gilloise – Cercle Brugge KSV?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.