Predictions are closed for this match.
C.D. Nacional
04:30 PM
Sep 12
Alverca
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1C.D. Nacional | 2.84 | 33 % | +8.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 28 % | +0.2 % |
| 2Alverca | 2.45 | 38 % | -22.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
C.D. Nacional
Alverca
| C.D. Nacional | Form and statistics | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| 1480 | Elo | 1496 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 11.9 | Shots / match | 8.9 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · C.D. Nacional a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: C.D. Nacional win 38 %, draw 30 %, Alverca win 32 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 44 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.84 for C.D. Nacional, 3.33 for the draw, 2.45 for Alverca.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:30 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio da Madeira.
The model leans towards C.D. Nacional at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for C.D. Nacional and 1.18 for Alverca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 33 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, C.D. Nacional took 4 points and Alverca 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for C.D. Nacional, 0 draws, 1 win for Alverca. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
