C.D. Nacional
1-3
Alverca
C.D. Nacional – Alverca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.18
The short version
Final score: C.D. Nacional 1-3 Alverca. The model predicted a win for C.D. Nacional (38 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for C.D. Nacional and 1.18 for Alverca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 33 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, C.D. Nacional took 4 points and Alverca 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for C.D. Nacional, 0 draws, 1 win for Alverca. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1C.D. Nacional | 2.84 | 33 % | +8.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 28 % | +0.2 % |
| 2Alverca | 2.45 | 38 % | -22.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
C.D. Nacional
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Alverca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- C.D. Nacional
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Alverca
- C.D. Nacional1-0Alverca
- Alverca1-0C.D. Nacional
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of C.D. Nacional – Alverca?
Final score: C.D. Nacional 1-3 Alverca. The model predicted a win for C.D. Nacional (38 %): missed prediction.
Who will win C.D. Nacional – Alverca?
Our model gives 1 · C.D. Nacional a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: C.D. Nacional win 38 %, draw 30 %, Alverca win 32 %.