C.D. Nacional
Braga
C.D. Nacional – Braga
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.91 – 1.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Braga away from home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.91 goals for C.D. Nacional and 1.69 for Braga. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, C.D. Nacional took no points and Braga 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for C.D. Nacional, 0 draws, 4 wins for Braga. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1C.D. Nacional | 5.75 | 16 % | +14.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +1.3 % |
| 2Braga | 1.54 | 60 % | -16.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
C.D. Nacional
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Braga
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- C.D. Nacional
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Braga
- C.D. Nacional1-2Braga
- Braga4-2C.D. Nacional
- Braga0-1C.D. Nacional
- Braga1-0C.D. Nacional
- C.D. Nacional0-3Braga
Frequently asked questions
Who will win C.D. Nacional – Braga?
Our model gives 2 · Braga a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: C.D. Nacional win 20 %, draw 26 %, Braga win 54 %.
What is the most likely score for C.D. Nacional – Braga?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.