Castellón
Sporting Gijón
Castellón – Sporting Gijón
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.71 – 0.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Castellón at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.71 goals for Castellón and 0.84 for Sporting Gijón. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Castellón took 10 points and Sporting Gijón 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Castellón, 0 draws, 2 wins for Sporting Gijón. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Castellón | 1.50 | 62 % | -12.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +11.2 % |
| 2Sporting Gijón | 5.75 | 16 % | -5.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sporting Gijón
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Castellón
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Sporting Gijón
- Sporting Gijón4-1Castellón
- Castellón3-1Sporting Gijón
- Castellón4-3Sporting Gijón
- Sporting Gijón2-1Castellón
- Castellón2-0Sporting Gijón
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Castellón – Sporting Gijón?
Our model gives 1 · Castellón a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Castellón win 58 %, draw 25 %, Sporting Gijón win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for Castellón – Sporting Gijón?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.