Vejlby Stadion
AGF
Viborg FF
AGF – Viborg FF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AGF at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for AGF and 1.32 for Viborg FF. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AGF took 6 points and Viborg FF 7 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for AGF, 0 draws, 1 win for Viborg FF. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AGF | 2.35 | 40 % | -7.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -2.8 % |
| 2Viborg FF | 2.75 | 34 % | -8.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AGF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Viborg FF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- AGF
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Viborg FF
- Viborg FF2-1AGF
- AGF6-2Viborg FF
- Viborg FF1-2AGF
- AGF5-2Viborg FF
- Viborg FF1-2AGF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AGF – Viborg FF?
Our model gives 1 · AGF a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AGF win 39 %, draw 27 %, Viborg FF win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for AGF – Viborg FF?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.