Lecce
Juventus
Lecce – Juventus
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.97 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Juventus away from home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.97 goals for Lecce and 1.78 for Juventus. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 65 %. Over their last five matches, Lecce took 6 points and Juventus 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Lecce, 2 draws, 3 wins for Juventus. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lecce | 7.50 | 12 % | +41.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.15 | 23 % | +4.8 % |
| 2Juventus | 1.44 | 65 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lecce
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Juventus
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Lecce
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Juventus
- Lecce0-1Juventus
- Juventus1-1Lecce
- Juventus2-1Lecce
- Lecce1-1Juventus
- Lecce0-3Juventus
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lecce – Juventus?
Our model gives 2 · Juventus a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lecce win 19 %, draw 25 %, Juventus win 56 %.
What is the most likely score for Lecce – Juventus?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.