SC Freiburg
Bayern Munich
SC Freiburg – Bayern Munich
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 1-28 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 78 %
- Both teams to score
- 69 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich away from home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.31 goals for SC Freiburg and 2.83 for Bayern Munich. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 69 %. Over their last five matches, SC Freiburg took 7 points and Bayern Munich 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 draw, 4 wins for Bayern Munich. Over 2.5 goals: 78 %. Both teams to score: 69 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Freiburg | 6.25 | 15 % | +15.9 % |
| XDraw | 5.63 | 17 % | +6.6 % |
| 2Bayern Munich | 1.35 | 69 % | -15.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
SC Freiburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- SC Freiburg
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Bayern Munich
- SC Freiburg2-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich6-2SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg1-2Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich2-0SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg2-2Bayern Munich
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SC Freiburg – Bayern Munich?
Our model gives 2 · Bayern Munich a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SC Freiburg win 19 %, draw 19 %, Bayern Munich win 63 %.
What is the most likely score for SC Freiburg – Bayern Munich?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.