Marseille
Le Havre AC
Marseille – Le Havre AC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.82 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Marseille at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.82 goals for Marseille and 0.98 for Le Havre AC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 60 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Marseille took 6 points and Le Havre AC 1 point. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Marseille, 0 draws, 0 wins for Le Havre AC. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 1.57 | 60 % | -8.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.55 | 21 % | +5.0 % |
| 2Le Havre AC | 5.00 | 19 % | -6.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Marseille
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Le Havre AC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- Marseille
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Le Havre AC
- Le Havre AC0-1Marseille
- Marseille6-2Le Havre AC
- Le Havre AC1-3Marseille
- Marseille5-1Le Havre AC
- Le Havre AC1-2Marseille
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Marseille – Le Havre AC?
Our model gives 1 · Marseille a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Marseille win 58 %, draw 23 %, Le Havre AC win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Marseille – Le Havre AC?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.