Angers
Lorient
Angers – Lorient
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.11 – 1.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lorient away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.11 goals for Angers and 1.48 for Lorient. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Angers took 4 points and Lorient 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Angers, 2 draws, 2 wins for Lorient. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Angers | 3.00 | 32 % | -10.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 29 % | -2.4 % |
| 2Lorient | 2.42 | 39 % | -1.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Angers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lorient
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Angers
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Lorient
- Lorient2-0Angers
- Angers2-0Lorient
- Lorient0-0Angers
- Angers1-2Lorient
- Lorient0-0Angers
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Angers – Lorient?
Our model gives 2 · Lorient a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Angers win 30 %, draw 29 %, Lorient win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Angers – Lorient?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.