AJ Auxerre
Le Mans
AJ Auxerre – Le Mans
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.70 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AJ Auxerre at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.70 goals for AJ Auxerre and 1.16 for Le Mans. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AJ Auxerre took 9 points and Le Mans 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for AJ Auxerre, 0 draws, 0 wins for Le Mans. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AJ Auxerre | 2.08 | 46 % | +3.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.63 | 26 % | -6.0 % |
| 2Le Mans | 3.40 | 28 % | -17.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AJ Auxerre
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Le Mans
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- AJ Auxerre
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Le Mans
- Le Mans0-1AJ Auxerre
- AJ Auxerre2-0Le Mans
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AJ Auxerre – Le Mans?
Our model gives 1 · AJ Auxerre a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AJ Auxerre win 50 %, draw 26 %, Le Mans win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for AJ Auxerre – Le Mans?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.