Hellas Verona
Pisa
Hellas Verona – Pisa
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hellas Verona at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.11 for Pisa. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Hellas Verona took 7 points and Pisa 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Hellas Verona, 2 draws, 0 wins for Pisa. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hellas Verona | 2.25 | 42 % | +5.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Pisa | 3.00 | 31 % | -24.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Hellas Verona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pisa
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Hellas Verona
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Pisa
- Hellas Verona0-0Pisa
- Pisa0-0Hellas Verona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hellas Verona – Pisa?
Our model gives 1 · Hellas Verona a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hellas Verona win 47 %, draw 28 %, Pisa win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Hellas Verona – Pisa?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.