Nordstern Arena Horsens
AC Horsens
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AC Horsens – Sønderjyske Fodbold
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AC Horsens at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.47 goals for AC Horsens and 1.41 for Sønderjyske Fodbold. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AC Horsens took 6 points and Sønderjyske Fodbold 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for AC Horsens, 0 draws, 3 wins for Sønderjyske Fodbold. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Horsens | 2.35 | 40 % | -10.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Sønderjyske Fodbold | 2.80 | 33 % | -5.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AC Horsens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sønderjyske Fodbold
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- AC Horsens
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Sønderjyske Fodbold
- Sønderjyske Fodbold2-5AC Horsens
- AC Horsens1-2Sønderjyske Fodbold
- Sønderjyske Fodbold2-3AC Horsens
- Sønderjyske Fodbold2-0AC Horsens
- AC Horsens0-3Sønderjyske Fodbold
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AC Horsens – Sønderjyske Fodbold?
Our model gives 1 · AC Horsens a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Horsens win 38 %, draw 28 %, Sønderjyske Fodbold win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for AC Horsens – Sønderjyske Fodbold?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.