TSG Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.40 – 2.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68 %
- Both teams to score
- 66 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayer Leverkusen away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.40 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.09 for Bayer Leverkusen. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, TSG Hoffenheim took 6 points and Bayer Leverkusen 15 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for TSG Hoffenheim, 0 draws, 3 wins for Bayer Leverkusen. Over 2.5 goals: 68 %. Both teams to score: 66 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSG Hoffenheim | 2.76 | 34 % | -31.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | -14.2 % |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 2.27 | 41 % | +19.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
TSG Hoffenheim
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayer Leverkusen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Bayer Leverkusen
- TSG Hoffenheim1-0Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen1-2TSG Hoffenheim
- Bayer Leverkusen3-1TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim1-4Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen2-1TSG Hoffenheim
Frequently asked questions
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model gives 2 · Bayer Leverkusen a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: TSG Hoffenheim win 25 %, draw 23 %, Bayer Leverkusen win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.