AS Monaco
Lille
AS Monaco – Lille
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AS Monaco at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.64 goals for AS Monaco and 1.12 for Lille. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AS Monaco took 10 points and Lille 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for AS Monaco, 1 draw, 3 wins for Lille. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AS Monaco | 2.05 | 46 % | -0.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Lille | 3.73 | 26 % | -8.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AS Monaco
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lille
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- AS Monaco
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Lille
- AS Monaco0-1Lille
- Lille1-0AS Monaco
- Lille2-1AS Monaco
- AS Monaco0-0Lille
- AS Monaco1-0Lille
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AS Monaco – Lille?
Our model gives 1 · AS Monaco a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AS Monaco win 49 %, draw 27 %, Lille win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for AS Monaco – Lille?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.