Atalanta
Frosinone
Atalanta – Frosinone
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atalanta at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.61 goals for Atalanta and 1.20 for Frosinone. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atalanta took 6 points and Frosinone 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Atalanta, 0 draws, 1 win for Frosinone. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atalanta | 1.80 | 52 % | -12.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +9.2 % |
| 2Frosinone | 3.73 | 25 % | -7.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atalanta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Frosinone
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Atalanta
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Frosinone
- Atalanta5-0Frosinone
- Frosinone2-1Atalanta
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atalanta – Frosinone?
Our model gives 1 · Atalanta a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atalanta win 48 %, draw 27 %, Frosinone win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Atalanta – Frosinone?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.