Palermo
Carrarese
Palermo – Carrarese
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 71 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.12 – 0.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palermo at home (71 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.12 goals for Palermo and 0.80 for Carrarese. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Palermo took 13 points and Carrarese 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Palermo, 1 draw, 1 win for Carrarese. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palermo | 1.46 | 64 % | +3.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 20 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Carrarese | 5.75 | 16 % | -45.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Palermo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Carrarese
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Palermo
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Carrarese
- Carrarese0-1Palermo
- Palermo5-0Carrarese
- Palermo1-1Carrarese
- Carrarese1-0Palermo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Palermo – Carrarese?
Our model gives 1 · Palermo a 71 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Palermo win 71 %, draw 20 %, Carrarese win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Palermo – Carrarese?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.