Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.56 – 1.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Liverpool at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.56 goals for Liverpool and 1.62 for Brighton & Hove Albion. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Liverpool took 12 points and Brighton & Hove Albion 13 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Liverpool, 0 draws, 2 wins for Brighton & Hove Albion. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 2.13 | 45 % | -20.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 26 % | -5.4 % |
| 2Brighton & Hove Albion | 3.25 | 29 % | +21.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Liverpool
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Brighton & Hove Albion2-1Liverpool
- Liverpool3-0Brighton & Hove Albion
- Liverpool2-0Brighton & Hove Albion
- Brighton & Hove Albion3-2Liverpool
- Liverpool2-1Brighton & Hove Albion
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion?
Our model gives 1 · Liverpool a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Liverpool win 37 %, draw 25 %, Brighton & Hove Albion win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.