SK Sturm Graz
SV Josko Ried
SK Sturm Graz – SV Josko Ried
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.08 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards SK Sturm Graz at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.08 goals for SK Sturm Graz and 0.86 for SV Josko Ried. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, SK Sturm Graz took 9 points and SV Josko Ried 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for SK Sturm Graz, 2 draws, 0 wins for SV Josko Ried. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SK Sturm Graz | 1.68 | 55 % | +11.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -15.4 % |
| 2SV Josko Ried | 4.20 | 22 % | -45.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
SK Sturm Graz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SV Josko Ried
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- SK Sturm Graz
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- SV Josko Ried
- SK Sturm Graz1-0SV Josko Ried
- SV Josko Ried1-3SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz2-1SV Josko Ried
- SV Josko Ried1-1SK Sturm Graz
- SV Josko Ried2-2SK Sturm Graz
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SK Sturm Graz – SV Josko Ried?
Our model gives 1 · SK Sturm Graz a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SK Sturm Graz win 66 %, draw 21 %, SV Josko Ried win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for SK Sturm Graz – SV Josko Ried?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.