NEC Nijmegen
FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen – FC Groningen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.89 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards NEC Nijmegen at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.89 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.43 for FC Groningen. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, NEC Nijmegen took 7 points and FC Groningen 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 0 draws, 2 wins for FC Groningen. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 2.25 | 41 % | +9.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -6.9 % |
| 2FC Groningen | 2.70 | 34 % | -27.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
NEC Nijmegen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Groningen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- NEC Nijmegen
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- FC Groningen
- FC Groningen2-1NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen2-0FC Groningen
- FC Groningen2-1NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen6-0FC Groningen
- FC Groningen0-1NEC Nijmegen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen – FC Groningen?
Our model gives 1 · NEC Nijmegen a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: NEC Nijmegen win 49 %, draw 24 %, FC Groningen win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for NEC Nijmegen – FC Groningen?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.