Holstein Kiel
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel – Dynamo Dresden
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.43 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Holstein Kiel at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.43 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.32 for Dynamo Dresden. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Holstein Kiel took 3 points and Dynamo Dresden 5 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Holstein Kiel, 1 draw, 1 win for Dynamo Dresden. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holstein Kiel | 2.30 | 41 % | -5.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | +2.3 % |
| 2Dynamo Dresden | 2.75 | 34 % | -13.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Holstein Kiel
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Dynamo Dresden
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Holstein Kiel
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Dynamo Dresden
- Dynamo Dresden2-1Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel2-1Dynamo Dresden
- Dynamo Dresden0-0Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel2-1Dynamo Dresden
- Holstein Kiel2-0Dynamo Dresden
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Holstein Kiel – Dynamo Dresden?
Our model gives 1 · Holstein Kiel a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Holstein Kiel win 41 %, draw 28 %, Dynamo Dresden win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Holstein Kiel – Dynamo Dresden?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.