Internazionale
Fiorentina
Internazionale – Fiorentina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 24, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 80 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.78 – 0.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Internazionale at home (80 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.78 goals for Internazionale and 0.84 for Fiorentina. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 70 %. Over their last five matches, Internazionale took 10 points and Fiorentina 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Internazionale, 1 draw, 1 win for Fiorentina. Over 2.5 goals: 70 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internazionale | 1.35 | 70 % | +7.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | -26.7 % |
| 2Fiorentina | 7.50 | 13 % | -51.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Internazionale
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fiorentina
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Internazionale
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Fiorentina
- Fiorentina1-1Internazionale
- Internazionale3-0Fiorentina
- Internazionale2-1Fiorentina
- Fiorentina3-0Internazionale
- Fiorentina0-1Internazionale
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Internazionale – Fiorentina?
Our model gives 1 · Internazionale a 80 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Internazionale win 80 %, draw 14 %, Fiorentina win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for Internazionale – Fiorentina?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.