Watford
1-2
Stoke City
Watford – Stoke City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Watford 1-2 Stoke City. The model predicted a win for Watford (46 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Watford and 1.08 for Stoke City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Watford took 4 points and Stoke City 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Watford, 2 draws, 1 win for Stoke City. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 2.25 | 42 % | +2.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 29 % | -5.3 % |
| 2Stoke City | 3.17 | 30 % | -18.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Watford
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Stoke City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Watford
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Stoke City
- Stoke City3-1Watford
- Watford1-0Stoke City
- Stoke City0-0Watford
- Watford3-0Stoke City
- Watford1-1Stoke City
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Watford – Stoke City?
Final score: Watford 1-2 Stoke City. The model predicted a win for Watford (46 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Watford – Stoke City?
Our model gives 1 · Watford a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Watford win 46 %, draw 29 %, Stoke City win 26 %.