Swansea City
3-1
Burnley
Swansea City – Burnley
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Swansea City 3-1 Burnley. The model predicted a win for Swansea City (45 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Swansea City and 1.11 for Burnley. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Swansea City took 8 points and Burnley 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Swansea City, 0 draws, 2 wins for Burnley. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Swansea City | 2.03 | 46 % | -7.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -1.6 % |
| 2Burnley | 3.48 | 27 % | -7.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Swansea City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Swansea City
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Burnley
- Swansea City0-2Burnley
- Burnley1-0Swansea City
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Swansea City – Burnley?
Final score: Swansea City 3-1 Burnley. The model predicted a win for Swansea City (45 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Swansea City – Burnley?
Our model gives 1 · Swansea City a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Swansea City win 45 %, draw 28 %, Burnley win 27 %.