Southampton
4-1
Bristol City
Southampton – Bristol City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.17 – 0.96
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Southampton 4-1 Bristol City. The model predicted a win for Southampton (66 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.17 goals for Southampton and 0.96 for Bristol City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 57 %. Over their last five matches, Southampton took 8 points and Bristol City 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Southampton, 1 draw, 2 wins for Bristol City. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 1.65 | 57 % | +8.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -19.6 % |
| 2Bristol City | 4.67 | 20 % | -30.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Southampton
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bristol City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Southampton
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Bristol City
- Southampton2-2Bristol City
- Bristol City3-1Southampton
- Bristol City3-1Southampton
- Southampton1-0Bristol City
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Southampton – Bristol City?
Final score: Southampton 4-1 Bristol City. The model predicted a win for Southampton (66 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Southampton – Bristol City?
Our model gives 1 · Southampton a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Southampton win 66 %, draw 20 %, Bristol City win 15 %.