Middlesbrough
04:00 PM
Sep 12
Norwich City
Middlesbrough – Norwich City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.70 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Middlesbrough at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.70 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.03 for Norwich City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Middlesbrough took 10 points and Norwich City 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Middlesbrough, 2 draws, 0 wins for Norwich City. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Middlesbrough | 1.81 | 52 % | -4.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Norwich City | 3.85 | 24 % | -11.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Middlesbrough
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Norwich City
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Middlesbrough | Form and statistics | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| 1551 | Elo | 1542 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 17.1 | Shots / match | 16.2 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Middlesbrough
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Norwich City
- Middlesbrough1-0Norwich City
- Norwich City1-2Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough0-0Norwich City
- Norwich City3-3Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough3-1Norwich City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Middlesbrough – Norwich City?
Our model gives 1 · Middlesbrough a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Middlesbrough win 53 %, draw 24 %, Norwich City win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Middlesbrough – Norwich City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
