Charlton Athletic
04:00 PM
Sep 12
Portsmouth
Charlton Athletic – Portsmouth
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.36 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Charlton Athletic at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.36 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.20 for Portsmouth. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Charlton Athletic took 5 points and Portsmouth 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Charlton Athletic, 0 draws, 2 wins for Portsmouth. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Charlton Athletic | 2.70 | 35 % | +3.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -6.3 % |
| 2Portsmouth | 2.61 | 36 % | -15.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Charlton Athletic
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Portsmouth
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Charlton Athletic | Form and statistics | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| 1437 | Elo | 1435 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 10.8 | Shots / match | 12.8 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Charlton Athletic
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Portsmouth
- Charlton Athletic1-3Portsmouth
- Portsmouth2-1Charlton Athletic
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Charlton Athletic – Portsmouth?
Our model gives 1 · Charlton Athletic a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Charlton Athletic win 38 %, draw 29 %, Portsmouth win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Charlton Athletic – Portsmouth?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
