Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Kawasaki Frontale – Fagiano Okayama
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Kawasaki Frontale at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.77 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.07 for Fagiano Okayama. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Kawasaki Frontale took 10 points and Fagiano Okayama 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Kawasaki Frontale, 2 draws, 0 wins for Fagiano Okayama. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kawasaki Frontale | 2.10 | 44 % | +7.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -12.0 % |
| 2Fagiano Okayama | 3.20 | 29 % | -22.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Kawasaki Frontale
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fagiano Okayama
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Kawasaki Frontale
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Fagiano Okayama
- Kawasaki Frontale1-1Fagiano Okayama
- Fagiano Okayama0-0Kawasaki Frontale
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kawasaki Frontale – Fagiano Okayama?
Our model gives 1 · Kawasaki Frontale a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kawasaki Frontale win 51 %, draw 25 %, Fagiano Okayama win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Kawasaki Frontale – Fagiano Okayama?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.