Aston Villa
1-2
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest. The model predicted a win for Aston Villa (48 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.66 goals for Aston Villa and 1.15 for Nottingham Forest. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Aston Villa took 4 points and Nottingham Forest 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Aston Villa, 1 draw, 1 win for Nottingham Forest. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aston Villa | 2.25 | 42 % | +7.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -10.8 % |
| 2Nottingham Forest | 3.20 | 30 % | -16.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Aston Villa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Nottingham Forest
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Aston Villa
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa4-0Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest1-0Aston Villa
- Nottingham Forest1-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa3-1Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa2-1Nottingham Forest
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest?
Final score: Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest. The model predicted a win for Aston Villa (48 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest?
Our model gives 1 · Aston Villa a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Aston Villa win 48 %, draw 26 %, Nottingham Forest win 26 %.