AFC Bournemouth
04:00 PM
Sep 12
Brentford
AFC Bournemouth – Brentford
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AFC Bournemouth at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.59 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 1.28 for Brentford. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AFC Bournemouth took 6 points and Brentford 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for AFC Bournemouth, 1 draw, 4 wins for Brentford. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Bournemouth | 2.27 | 42 % | +0.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -3.4 % |
| 2Brentford | 3.00 | 32 % | -13.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
AFC Bournemouth
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brentford
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| AFC Bournemouth | Form and statistics | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| 1717 | Elo | 1702 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 15.7 | Shots / match | 14.6 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- AFC Bournemouth
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Brentford
- AFC Bournemouth0-0Brentford
- Brentford4-1AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth0-2Brentford
- AFC Bournemouth1-2Brentford
- Brentford3-2AFC Bournemouth
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AFC Bournemouth – Brentford?
Our model gives 1 · AFC Bournemouth a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AFC Bournemouth win 44 %, draw 27 %, Brentford win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for AFC Bournemouth – Brentford?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
