Monterrey
Guadalajara
Monterrey – Guadalajara
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.41 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Monterrey at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.41 goals for Monterrey and 1.37 for Guadalajara. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Monterrey took 10 points and Guadalajara 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Monterrey, 1 draw, 3 wins for Guadalajara. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterrey | 2.50 | 37 % | -3.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -17.5 % |
| 2Guadalajara | 2.85 | 33 % | +0.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Monterrey
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Guadalajara
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Monterrey
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Guadalajara
- Monterrey2-3Guadalajara
- Guadalajara4-2Monterrey
- Monterrey3-1Guadalajara
- Guadalajara1-1Monterrey
- Monterrey0-2Guadalajara
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Monterrey – Guadalajara?
Our model gives 1 · Monterrey a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Monterrey win 39 %, draw 26 %, Guadalajara win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Monterrey – Guadalajara?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.