Santos
Bahia
Santos – Bahia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.76 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Santos at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.76 goals for Santos and 0.92 for Bahia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, Santos took 12 points and Bahia 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Santos, 3 draws, 1 win for Bahia. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santos | 1.95 | 48 % | +10.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -9.2 % |
| 2Bahia | 3.60 | 26 % | -33.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Santos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bahia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Santos
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Bahia
- Bahia2-2Santos
- Bahia2-0Santos
- Santos2-2Bahia
- Bahia1-2Santos
- Santos0-0Bahia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santos – Bahia?
Our model gives 1 · Santos a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Santos win 57 %, draw 25 %, Bahia win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Santos – Bahia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.