TSG Hoffenheim
03:30 PM
Sep 12
VfB Stuttgart
TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.36 – 1.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards VfB Stuttgart away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.36 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.92 for VfB Stuttgart. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 33 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.88, the predicted outcome carries +35.4 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, TSG Hoffenheim took 6 points and VfB Stuttgart 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for TSG Hoffenheim, 4 draws, 1 win for VfB Stuttgart. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSG Hoffenheim | 2.15 | 44 % | -40.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -2.1 % |
| 2VfB Stuttgart |
Form and statistics
TSG Hoffenheim
- Last 5 matches
- At home
VfB Stuttgart
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| TSG Hoffenheim | Form and statistics | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 1630 | Elo | 1757 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.30 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 16.6 | Shots / match | 17.5 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 4 draws
- 1 win
- VfB Stuttgart
- TSG Hoffenheim3-3VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart0-0TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim1-1VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart1-1TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim0-3VfB Stuttgart
Frequently asked questions
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart?
Our model gives 2 · VfB Stuttgart a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: TSG Hoffenheim win 28 %, draw 25 %, VfB Stuttgart win 47 %.
What is the most likely score for TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
