Palmeiras
Red Bull Bragantino
Palmeiras – Red Bull Bragantino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.84 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palmeiras at home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.84 goals for Palmeiras and 0.91 for Red Bull Bragantino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Palmeiras took 12 points and Red Bull Bragantino 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Palmeiras, 1 draw, 0 wins for Red Bull Bragantino. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palmeiras | 1.54 | 61 % | -2.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -8.8 % |
| 2Red Bull Bragantino | 5.50 | 17 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Palmeiras
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Red Bull Bragantino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Palmeiras
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino0-1Palmeiras
- Palmeiras5-1Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino1-2Palmeiras
- Red Bull Bragantino0-0Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-1Red Bull Bragantino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Palmeiras – Red Bull Bragantino?
Our model gives 1 · Palmeiras a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Palmeiras win 64 %, draw 22 %, Red Bull Bragantino win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Palmeiras – Red Bull Bragantino?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.