SC Freiburg
03:30 PM
Sep 12
Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.44 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards SC Freiburg at home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.44 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.97 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, SC Freiburg took 15 points and Borussia Mönchengladbach 6 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 draw, 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Freiburg | 1.69 | 55 % | +18.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.05 | 23 % | -26.5 % |
| 2Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4.40 | 21 % | -47.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
SC Freiburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| SC Freiburg | Form and statistics | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 1709 | Elo | 1550 |
| 2.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 15.7 | Shots / match | 15.6 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- SC Freiburg
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
- SC Freiburg2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0SC Freiburg
- Borussia Mönchengladbach1-2SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg3-1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach0-3
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model gives 1 · SC Freiburg a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SC Freiburg win 70 %, draw 18 %, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
