Atlético Goianiense
Novorizontino
Atlético Goianiense – Novorizontino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético Goianiense at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.31 goals for Atlético Goianiense and 1.24 for Novorizontino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlético Goianiense took 8 points and Novorizontino 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Atlético Goianiense, 2 draws, 1 win for Novorizontino. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Goianiense | 2.50 | 37 % | -7.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -4.5 % |
| 2Novorizontino | 2.75 | 34 % | -7.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlético Goianiense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Atlético Goianiense
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Novorizontino
- Novorizontino3-0Atlético Goianiense
- Novorizontino1-1Atlético Goianiense
- Atlético Goianiense1-0Novorizontino
- Atlético Goianiense2-2Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Goianiense – Novorizontino?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético Goianiense a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Goianiense win 37 %, draw 29 %, Novorizontino win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Goianiense – Novorizontino?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.