Avaí
Botafogo-SP
Avaí – Botafogo-SP
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Avaí at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.22 goals for Avaí and 0.99 for Botafogo-SP. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Avaí took 7 points and Botafogo-SP 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Avaí, 2 draws, 1 win for Botafogo-SP. Over 2.5 goals: 38 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Avaí | 2.30 | 40 % | -6.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 31 % | -7.3 % |
| 2Botafogo-SP | 3.20 | 29 % | -7.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Avaí
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Botafogo-SP
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Avaí
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP3-1Avaí
- Botafogo-SP0-0Avaí
- Avaí5-0Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP1-3Avaí
- Avaí1-1Botafogo-SP
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Avaí – Botafogo-SP?
Our model gives 1 · Avaí a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Avaí win 41 %, draw 30 %, Botafogo-SP win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Avaí – Botafogo-SP?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.