Mainz
03:30 PM
Sep 12
Eintracht Frankfurt
Mainz – Eintracht Frankfurt
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.19 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mainz at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.19 goals for Mainz and 1.28 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mainz took 10 points and Eintracht Frankfurt 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Mainz, 1 draw, 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz | 1.72 | 54 % | -2.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.08 | 23 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Eintracht Frankfurt | 4.10 | 23 % | -15.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Mainz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Mainz | Form and statistics | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 1657 | Elo | 1583 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 2.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 2.10 |
| 17.1 | Shots / match | 16.1 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Mainz
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- Mainz2-1Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt1-0Mainz
- Mainz1-1Eintracht Frankfurt
- Eintracht Frankfurt1-3Mainz
- Eintracht Frankfurt1-0Mainz
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mainz – Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model gives 1 · Mainz a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mainz win 57 %, draw 22 %, Eintracht Frankfurt win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Mainz – Eintracht Frankfurt?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
