Almería
Real Oviedo
Almería – Real Oviedo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.71 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Almería at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.71 goals for Almería and 0.95 for Real Oviedo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Almería took 15 points and Real Oviedo 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Almería, 2 draws, 3 wins for Real Oviedo. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Almería | 1.62 | 57 % | -9.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +0.6 % |
| 2Real Oviedo | 5.00 | 19 % | -9.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Almería
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Oviedo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Almería
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo1-1Almería
- Almería1-2Real Oviedo
- Almería1-1Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo3-2Almería
- Real Oviedo2-0Almería
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Almería – Real Oviedo?
Our model gives 1 · Almería a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Almería win 56 %, draw 26 %, Real Oviedo win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Almería – Real Oviedo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.