Lens
Paris FC
Lens – Paris FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 23, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.74 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lens at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.74 goals for Lens and 1.16 for Paris FC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. Over their last five matches, Lens took 6 points and Paris FC 10 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Lens, 0 draws, 0 wins for Paris FC. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lens | 2.40 | 40 % | +26.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.58 | 27 % | -12.9 % |
| 2Paris FC | 2.80 | 34 % | -35.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Lens
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Paris FC
- Paris FC0-5Lens
- Lens2-1Paris FC
- Paris FC0-2Lens
- Lens2-1Paris FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lens – Paris FC?
Our model gives 1 · Lens a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lens win 53 %, draw 24 %, Paris FC win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Lens – Paris FC?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.